Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (55% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Cates 45.5% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 59.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 55.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Scheifele
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Scheifele
Cates
Last 10: Scheifele 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Scheifele
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Scheifele
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
6
5
Scheifele
Cates
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
45.4% (712)
+1.1%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
42.2% (102)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
44.7% (47)
+5.3%
On power play, Scheifele has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Scheifele shoots right. Cates is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Cates
Home
46.2% (571)
46.3% (423)
Away
47.7% (535)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Scheifele
Cates
P1
51.9%
46.3%
P2
45.6%
47.1%
P3
43.9%
42.1%
OT
27.3%
18.2%
Final 5 min
47.7%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |