Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 46.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 19-13 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 86.4%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 55.8%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 60.5%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Scheifele
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
13
(32 meetings)
19
13
Scheifele
Cates
Last 10: Scheifele 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
7
3
Scheifele
Cates
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
5
Scheifele
Cates
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
10
5
Scheifele
Cates
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (12,036)
44.1% (2,742)
+2.2%
Power Play
50.2% (2,563)
43.0% (242)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (598)
34.9% (373)
+6.7%
On power play, Scheifele has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Scheifele shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Cates
Home
48.9% (7,644)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
44.7% (7,554)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Scheifele
Cates
P1
48.2%
44.5%
P2
45.6%
43.5%
P3
46.8%
41.2%
OT
42.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
45.6%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:12 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:45 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:14 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:30 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Noah Cates |