Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Scheifele wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 48.1% vs Carrick 49.5% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 82.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 80.9%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 51.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Scheifele
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Scheifele
Carrick
Last 8: Scheifele 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
0
Scheifele
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
3
Scheifele
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Scheifele
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (960)
49.2% (307)
-1.4%
Power Play
47.0% (219)
66.7% (6)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
60.7% (28)
48.2% (56)
+12.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Scheifele is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Scheifele shoots right. Carrick is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Carrick
Home
50.7% (611)
50.3% (175)
Away
45.1% (596)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Scheifele
Carrick
P1
51.4%
41.0%
P2
47.3%
51.2%
P3
45.0%
55.3%
Final 5 min
44.7%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 2 | 10:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 4, 2022 | 1 | 15:33 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |