Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Scheifele wins 42.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Scheifele 47.2% vs Johnston 48.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 73.5%
Defensive zone
Johnston 61.4%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 57.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Scheifele
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Scheifele
Johnston
Last 7: Scheifele 2-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
0
Scheifele
Johnston
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Scheifele
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
3
Scheifele
Johnston
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Scheifele
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (878)
47.8% (623)
-1.3%
Power Play
48.3% (174)
50.8% (63)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (54)
51.4% (35)
-1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Scheifele is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Scheifele shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Scheifele
Johnston
Home
46.2% (571)
47.6% (351)
Away
47.7% (535)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Scheifele
Johnston
P1
51.9%
49.6%
P2
45.6%
47.3%
P3
43.9%
48.0%
OT
27.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
47.7%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:08 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:04 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |