Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +26.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Necas wins 32.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Necas 40.8% vs Sturm 59.0% (-26.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 74.6%
Defensive zone
Necas 52.3%
Neutral zone
Necas 74.7%
Result
Martin Necas favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
Necas
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Necas
Sturm
Last 6: Necas 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Necas
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Necas
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Necas
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Necas
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
33.6% (134)
60.6% (708)
-27.0%
Power Play
50.0% (2)
61.1% (18)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
56.4% (101)
-6.4%
On even strength, Sturm has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Necas is 32.4% vs left-shot opponents (108).
Necas shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Necas
Sturm
Home
28.2% (71)
61.6% (451)
Away
40.3% (67)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Necas
Sturm
P1
33.9%
55.9%
P2
36.4%
58.9%
P3
31.6%
64.6%
Final 5 min
22.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
34.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Martin Necas |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |