Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Necas wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Necas 41.9% vs Sturm 56.1% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 93.7%
Defensive zone
Necas 72.7%
Neutral zone
Necas 86.1%
Result
Martin Necas favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Necas
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Necas
Sturm
Last 8: Necas 1-7 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Necas
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
5
Necas
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Necas
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Necas
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (797)
57.1% (2,719)
-16.4%
Power Play
40.0% (135)
61.3% (62)
-21.3%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (37)
51.0% (498)
+3.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Necas is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (743).
Necas shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Necas
Sturm
Home
39.2% (492)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
43.0% (477)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Necas
Sturm
P1
39.9%
56.5%
P2
40.6%
54.9%
P3
43.3%
57.4%
OT
41.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
42.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
41.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2023 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 1 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Martin Necas |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 13:58 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |