Mason McTavish vs Nathan MacKinnon
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McTavish wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 76.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
McTavish
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
McTavish
MacKinnon
Last 10: McTavish 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
3
1
McTavish
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
2
McTavish
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
44.7% (1,053)
-2.3%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
36.8% (95)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
65.0% (20)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McTavish is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
McTavish shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
McTavish
MacKinnon
Home
41.9% (372)
49.4% (553)
Away
42.8% (353)
40.0% (615)
By Period
McTavish
MacKinnon
P1
47.2%
45.3%
P2
36.2%
42.7%
P3
43.6%
45.1%
OT
0.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
44.2%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 19:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 08:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |