Mason McTavish vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.0%
Neutral zone
McTavish 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
McTavish
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
McTavish
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
McTavish
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
50.0% (992)
-2.4%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
64.9% (148)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. McTavish is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McTavish shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
McTavish
MacKinnon
Home
52.2% (389)
53.3% (591)
Away
45.1% (335)
49.6% (581)
By Period
McTavish
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
49.9%
P2
47.9%
53.2%
P3
49.0%
50.8%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.5%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |