Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 69.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 91.7%
Neutral zone
Paul 75.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.6%
25.4%
74.6%
McTavish
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
6
(20 meetings)
14
6
McTavish
Paul
Last 10: McTavish 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
5
3
McTavish
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
0
McTavish
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
7
3
McTavish
Paul
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
52.5% (3,796)
-4.3%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
56.5% (480)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
46.7% (574)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
McTavish
Paul
Home
49.8% (1,678)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
McTavish
Paul
P1
50.0%
53.9%
P2
47.8%
51.0%
P3
48.4%
52.0%
OT
43.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 11:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:56 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |