Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 51.5% vs Paul 53.9% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 61.1%
Defensive zone
Paul 64.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 50.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
McTavish
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
McTavish
Paul
Last 5: McTavish 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
McTavish
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
0
McTavish
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (725)
53.1% (710)
-1.8%
Power Play
55.8% (113)
57.3% (199)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
58.0% (69)
-29.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McTavish shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
McTavish
Paul
Home
52.0% (454)
56.0% (466)
Away
51.4% (391)
52.7% (512)
By Period
McTavish
Paul
P1
51.3%
57.2%
P2
50.4%
54.9%
P3
53.3%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:56 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:49 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Nick Paul |