Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall. McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Paul 53.4% (-11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 89.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 88.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 85.9%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 88.3%
11.7%
88.3%
McTavish
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
McTavish
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
0
McTavish
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
0
McTavish
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
53.8% (753)
-11.4%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
58.9% (90)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
47.4% (78)
+2.6%
On power play, Paul has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
McTavish
Paul
Home
41.9% (372)
54.2% (450)
Away
42.8% (353)
53.3% (471)
By Period
McTavish
Paul
P1
47.2%
58.2%
P2
36.2%
50.6%
P3
43.6%
52.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:15 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |