Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.0%). Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.6% vs Paul 50.0% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 57.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.7%
Neutral zone
McTavish 55.0%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
McTavish
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
McTavish
Paul
Last 10: McTavish 7-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
1
McTavish
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
0
McTavish
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
3
McTavish
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (769)
48.8% (666)
+2.3%
Power Play
50.6% (178)
53.8% (65)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
60.0% (55)
-31.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
McTavish shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
McTavish
Paul
Home
52.3% (461)
49.7% (348)
Away
49.2% (500)
50.2% (438)
By Period
McTavish
Paul
P1
51.5%
51.0%
P2
54.0%
47.4%
P3
47.1%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 11:01 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |