Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 49.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 61.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
McTavish
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
McTavish
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McTavish
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (616)
45.4% (712)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.8% (102)
42.2% (102)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
44.7% (47)
-11.4%
On power play, McTavish has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McTavish is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
McTavish shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
McTavish
Cates
Home
52.2% (389)
46.3% (423)
Away
45.1% (335)
43.6% (438)
By Period
McTavish
Cates
P1
50.0%
46.3%
P2
47.9%
47.1%
P3
49.0%
42.1%
OT
40.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
45.5%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.9%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |