Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 50.6% vs Cates 45.1% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 52.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 77.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
McTavish
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McTavish
Cates
Last 8: McTavish 3-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McTavish
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
3
McTavish
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (769)
46.7% (912)
+4.4%
Power Play
50.6% (178)
33.9% (56)
+16.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
35.0% (137)
-6.4%
On power play, McTavish has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
McTavish shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
McTavish
Cates
Home
52.3% (461)
46.1% (521)
Away
49.2% (500)
43.3% (584)
By Period
McTavish
Cates
P1
51.5%
48.0%
P2
54.0%
42.3%
P3
47.1%
44.3%
OT
50.0%
31.3%
Final 5 min
51.1%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |