Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 14-13 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 71.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 52.3%
Neutral zone
McTavish 65.4%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
McTavish
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
13
(27 meetings)
14
13
McTavish
Cates
Last 10: McTavish 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
6
4
McTavish
Cates
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
McTavish
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
5
6
McTavish
Cates
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
44.1% (2,742)
+4.1%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
43.0% (242)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
34.9% (373)
-0.6%
On power play, McTavish has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
McTavish
Cates
Home
49.8% (1,678)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
McTavish
Cates
P1
50.0%
44.5%
P2
47.8%
43.5%
P3
48.4%
41.2%
OT
43.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
49.7%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 14:37 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:09 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:08 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 10:44 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 17:12 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:03 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 06:58 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 18:38 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 11:09 | Offensive | Noah Cates |