Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McTavish wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 43.3% vs Cates 40.4% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 67.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 61.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 64.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 63.5%
36.5%
63.5%
McTavish
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
McTavish
Cates
Last 5: McTavish 0-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
McTavish
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
McTavish
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
42.4% (675)
40.4% (841)
+2.0%
Power Play
40.5% (42)
42.4% (66)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
32.7% (147)
+17.3%
On penalty kill, McTavish has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McTavish is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (441).
McTavish shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
McTavish
Cates
Home
41.9% (372)
38.2% (566)
Away
42.8% (353)
41.0% (488)
By Period
McTavish
Cates
P1
47.2%
40.5%
P2
36.2%
42.4%
P3
43.6%
35.3%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.2%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
42.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 02:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 18:40 | Defensive | Noah Cates |