Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.6% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 48.7% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 16-13 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
McTavish 62.4%
Defensive zone
Gourde 62.3%
Neutral zone
McTavish 53.8%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
McTavish
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
16
(29 meetings)
13
16
McTavish
Gourde
Last 10: McTavish 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
3
McTavish
Gourde
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
3
McTavish
Gourde
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
5
10
McTavish
Gourde
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (2,788)
48.4% (4,954)
-0.2%
Power Play
52.6% (435)
57.4% (376)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
34.3% (35)
39.9% (554)
-5.6%
On penalty kill, Gourde has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
McTavish shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,946).
Home / Away
McTavish
Gourde
Home
49.8% (1,678)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
47.4% (1,580)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
McTavish
Gourde
P1
50.0%
49.9%
P2
47.8%
47.4%
P3
48.4%
47.5%
OT
43.5%
37.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:59 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 09:04 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 16:03 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |