Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Paul 53.6% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 72.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 79.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 68.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 71.2%
28.8%
71.2%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Barzal
Paul
Last 5: Barzal 3-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
53.8% (318)
-13.4%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
61.4% (57)
-27.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
50.0% (32)
-21.4%
On power play, Paul has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (110).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
38.1% (244)
54.6% (183)
Away
41.3% (264)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
46.6%
57.0%
P2
35.7%
56.2%
P3
37.7%
51.7%
OT
0.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
40.5%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:27 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 11:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |