Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 58.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.0%
Neutral zone
Barzal 55.5%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Barzal
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (114)
53.1% (710)
-10.1%
On even strength, Paul has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (98).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
35.8% (53)
56.0% (466)
Away
49.2% (61)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
44.2%
57.2%
P2
38.5%
54.9%
P3
46.9%
51.5%
Final 5 min
38.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 14:18 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:31 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |