Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +18.1% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs Paul 53.4% (-18.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 75.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 72.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Barzal
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
53.8% (753)
-18.8%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
58.9% (90)
-3.3%
On even strength, Paul has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
37.0% (138)
54.2% (450)
Away
34.4% (154)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
29.5%
58.2%
P2
44.5%
50.6%
P3
31.8%
52.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.1%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 15:26 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 04:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 1 | 06:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |