Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Paul 50.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 79.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 61.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.1%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Barzal
Paul
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Barzal
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Barzal
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
53.0% (644)
-6.4%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
37.5% (24)
+3.4%
On even strength, Paul has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
49.6% (242)
52.5% (516)
Away
43.3% (263)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
42.4%
47.6%
P2
49.5%
48.4%
P3
47.7%
54.5%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
40.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 2 | 09:35 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 08:28 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 05:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 2 | 14:29 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 1 | 00:23 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |