Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Barzal wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.9% vs Paul 51.0% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 66.7%
Defensive zone
Barzal 65.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 65.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Barzal
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barzal
Paul
Last 8: Barzal 3-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Barzal
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
3
4
Barzal
Paul
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (514)
53.5% (312)
-12.8%
Power Play
58.3% (24)
53.8% (26)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
29.4% (34)
+20.6%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Barzal shoots right. Paul is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Barzal
Paul
Home
43.0% (279)
45.8% (153)
Away
40.1% (269)
55.0% (220)
By Period
Barzal
Paul
P1
41.2%
55.9%
P2
46.4%
48.9%
P3
37.1%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2020 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 07:08 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 02:09 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Nick Paul |