Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 41.5% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 43.4% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 69.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 60.6%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.5%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Barzal
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barzal
Schmaltz
Last 8: Barzal 3-5 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
3
Barzal
Schmaltz
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Barzal
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
0
Barzal
Schmaltz
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
42.3% (813)
39.5% (658)
+2.8%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
41.3% (92)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
45.1% (51)
+54.9%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +54.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Barzal is 41.5% vs right-shot opponents (277).
Barzal shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Barzal
Schmaltz
Home
44.3% (436)
40.8% (424)
Away
40.7% (398)
39.3% (377)
By Period
Barzal
Schmaltz
P1
39.7%
38.4%
P2
44.3%
40.7%
P3
44.2%
41.0%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.6%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2018 | 3 | 04:58 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 05:55 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 17:30 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 02:51 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |