Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 58.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 68.5%
Neutral zone
Barzal 55.7%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Barzal
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Barzal
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Barzal
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
45.9% (665)
-5.5%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
46.8% (111)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
50.0% (24)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Barzal
Schmaltz
Home
38.1% (244)
44.7% (409)
Away
41.3% (264)
47.6% (391)
By Period
Barzal
Schmaltz
P1
46.6%
40.3%
P2
35.7%
47.6%
P3
37.7%
51.0%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |