Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.4% vs 43.2%). Look for Strome on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Barzal wins 37.7% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 44.9% vs Strome 44.0% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 57.9%
Defensive zone
Strome 59.3%
Neutral zone
Strome 54.4%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Barzal
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Barzal
Strome
Last 7: Barzal 2-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Strome
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
0
1
Barzal
Strome
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
1
4
Barzal
Strome
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (314)
41.9% (626)
+1.4%
Power Play
45.5% (33)
50.0% (76)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
51.2% (41)
-17.9%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Barzal is 37.7% vs right-shot opponents (146).
Barzal shoots right. Strome is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Barzal
Strome
Home
39.9% (168)
40.8% (363)
Away
46.7% (182)
45.5% (380)
By Period
Barzal
Strome
P1
39.0%
43.0%
P2
49.1%
41.3%
P3
43.3%
45.9%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
30.5%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.4%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 07:10 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 04:18 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 08:51 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 12:37 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 04:12 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |