Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Steel 50.2% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 74.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 79.2%
Neutral zone
Barzal 80.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Barzal
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Barzal
Steel
Last 10: Barzal 2-8 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Barzal
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
4
Barzal
Steel
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Steel
0
3
Barzal
Steel
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
50.6% (2,876)
-8.7%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
62.6% (179)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
37.4% (254)
+4.9%
On power play, Steel has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Barzal
Steel
Home
43.1% (1,895)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Barzal
Steel
P1
40.7%
51.9%
P2
44.4%
49.5%
P3
41.0%
49.6%
OT
27.6%
41.9%
Final 5 min
39.9%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 07:22 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:52 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 12:10 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 1 | 13:15 | Offensive | Sam Steel |