Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 46.9% vs Kuraly 49.5% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 87.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 63.8%
Neutral zone
Barzal 67.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Barzal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Barzal
Kuraly
Last 7: Barzal 2-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Barzal
Kuraly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Barzal
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (483)
52.3% (982)
-5.7%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
41.9% (43)
-1.0%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barzal is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Barzal shoots right. Kuraly is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (411).
Home / Away
Barzal
Kuraly
Home
49.6% (242)
50.3% (680)
Away
43.3% (263)
48.5% (590)
By Period
Barzal
Kuraly
P1
42.4%
49.5%
P2
49.5%
49.6%
P3
47.7%
49.0%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
40.2%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
46.3%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |