Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Kuraly 50.1% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 59.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 92.0%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 74.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Barzal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barzal
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
51.8% (444)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
45.3% (150)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Barzal
Kuraly
Home
38.1% (244)
54.6% (304)
Away
41.3% (264)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Barzal
Kuraly
P1
46.6%
55.2%
P2
35.7%
45.7%
P3
37.7%
49.5%
OT
0.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
40.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |