Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Barzal wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Kuraly 50.3% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 22-13 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Barzal 97.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 77.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 91.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 88.7%
88.7%
11.3%
Barzal
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
22
(35 meetings)
13
22
Barzal
Kuraly
Last 10: Barzal 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
10
6
Barzal
Kuraly
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
13
Barzal
Kuraly
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
3
Barzal
Kuraly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
51.5% (5,141)
-9.6%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
56.0% (100)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
44.2% (1,086)
-1.9%
On power play, Kuraly has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Barzal shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Home / Away
Barzal
Kuraly
Home
43.1% (1,895)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Barzal
Kuraly
P1
40.7%
51.1%
P2
44.4%
49.9%
P3
41.0%
50.0%
OT
27.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
39.9%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 19:26 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Apr 16, 2021 | 1 | 03:43 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 3 | 08:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 07:18 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:51 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |