Scouting Report
Tage Thompson holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Thompson 45.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 64.9%
Defensive zone
Barzal 65.8%
Neutral zone
Barzal 65.9%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Barzal
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barzal
Thompson
Last 5: Barzal 1-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Barzal
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Barzal
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
44.9% (642)
-4.5%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
47.9% (94)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
33.3% (33)
-4.7%
On power play, Thompson has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Barzal
Thompson
Home
38.1% (244)
46.0% (391)
Away
41.3% (264)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Barzal
Thompson
P1
46.6%
48.1%
P2
35.7%
44.9%
P3
37.7%
41.2%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
40.5%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |