Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.0% vs 42.6%). Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 66.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 51.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 53.5%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Barzal
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Barzal
Thompson
Last 7: Barzal 1-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Barzal
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Barzal
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Barzal
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
42.9% (3,521)
-1.0%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
46.8% (372)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
33.6% (265)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Thompson is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,147).
Home / Away
Barzal
Thompson
Home
43.1% (1,895)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Barzal
Thompson
P1
40.7%
44.5%
P2
44.4%
43.6%
P3
41.0%
40.2%
OT
27.6%
36.4%
Final 5 min
39.9%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |