Scouting Report
Tom Wilson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.6% vs right-shot opponents — Wilson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Wilson 48.9% (-5.9%)
Offensive zone
Barzal 52.3%
Defensive zone
Barzal 56.0%
Neutral zone
Barzal 52.2%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Barzal
Wilson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Wilson
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
45.5% (11)
-5.1%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
55.6% (9)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
40.0% (15)
-11.4%
On power play, Wilson has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wilson shoots right. Barzal is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (115).
Barzal shoots right. Wilson is 100.0% vs right-shot opponents (3).
Home / Away
Barzal
Wilson
Home
38.1% (244)
33.3% (15)
Away
41.3% (264)
55.0% (20)
By Period
Barzal
Wilson
P1
46.6%
46.7%
P2
35.7%
54.5%
P3
37.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.5%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Wilson
40.0%▬
39.0%
45.7%