Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Wilson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.2% vs Wilson 42.4% (+1.4%)
Offensive zone
Wilson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Barzal 52.3%
Neutral zone
Barzal 50.8%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Barzal
Wilson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Wilson
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (3,565)
40.8% (240)
+1.1%
Power Play
43.4% (205)
38.5% (65)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
41.3% (104)
+1.0%
On power play, Barzal has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wilson shoots right. Barzal is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,097).
Barzal shoots right. Wilson is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Home / Away
Barzal
Wilson
Home
43.1% (1,895)
33.7% (187)
Away
40.9% (1,901)
46.4% (222)
By Period
Barzal
Wilson
P1
40.7%
42.0%
P2
44.4%
44.8%
P3
41.0%
33.3%
OT
27.6%
16.7%
Final 5 min
39.9%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Wilson
40.0%▬
39.0%
40.6%