Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.2% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 39.3% vs Hertl 54.5% (-19.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 72.8%
Defensive zone
Barzal 64.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 71.4%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Barzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Barzal
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
35.0% (283)
54.1% (1,117)
-19.1%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
59.8% (296)
-4.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Barzal shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Barzal
Hertl
Home
37.0% (138)
54.3% (709)
Away
34.4% (154)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Barzal
Hertl
P1
29.5%
51.6%
P2
44.5%
53.6%
P3
31.8%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |