Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Barzal wins 38.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 41.4% vs Hertl 57.2% (-18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.5%
Defensive zone
Barzal 59.1%
Neutral zone
Barzal 53.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Barzal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Barzal
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barzal
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Barzal
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.4% (463)
58.1% (823)
-17.7%
Power Play
34.2% (38)
56.2% (265)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
62.9% (35)
-34.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Barzal shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Barzal
Hertl
Home
38.1% (244)
59.7% (561)
Away
41.3% (264)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Barzal
Hertl
P1
46.6%
51.6%
P2
35.7%
63.8%
P3
37.7%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
40.5%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |