Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.9% vs Duchene 52.8% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 72.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
11
(13 meetings)
2
11
Ryan
Duchene
Last 10: Ryan 1-9 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Ryan
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
5
Ryan
Duchene
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Ryan
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (816)
52.6% (1,112)
+3.9%
Power Play
55.2% (105)
56.0% (193)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (19)
49.0% (49)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (642).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
56.7% (466)
55.7% (652)
Away
56.3% (474)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
55.4%
51.4%
P2
58.1%
53.9%
P3
55.8%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
56.5%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 24, 2018 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 12:37 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 11:25 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 01:05 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 09:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 2, 2017 | 1 | 03:52 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |