Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 52.0% vs Duchene 55.3% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.8%
Defensive zone
Ryan 76.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 54.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Ryan
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Ryan
Duchene
Last 5: Ryan 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Ryan
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Ryan
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (603)
56.0% (579)
-1.9%
Power Play
40.9% (44)
59.3% (108)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (85)
25.0% (8)
+20.9%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Ryan is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Ryan shoots right. Duchene is 62.7% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Home / Away
Ryan
Duchene
Home
52.5% (341)
54.9% (375)
Away
52.2% (391)
57.5% (320)
By Period
Ryan
Duchene
P1
56.0%
58.3%
P2
48.1%
56.7%
P3
52.8%
53.1%
OT
33.3%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
52.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 02:07 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 31, 2019 | 2 | 19:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |