Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +17.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 46.2% vs Duchene 61.5% (-17.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 74.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.8%
Neutral zone
Larkin 82.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Larkin
Duchene
Last 6: Larkin 0-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Larkin
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Larkin
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (391)
62.2% (802)
-16.7%
Power Play
41.4% (29)
67.3% (153)
-25.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (12)
59.4% (143)
-9.4%
On power play, Duchene has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (237).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
47.0% (181)
66.5% (555)
Away
44.2% (251)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
42.7%
63.2%
P2
52.4%
59.6%
P3
41.8%
65.0%
OT
20.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
49.0%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
45.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2017 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2017 | 1 | 14:08 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 11:15 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |