Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.3% vs Duchene 55.3% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.4%
Defensive zone
Larkin 67.4%
Neutral zone
Larkin 55.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Larkin
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Larkin
Duchene
Last 10: Larkin 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
6
Larkin
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
1
Larkin
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (973)
56.0% (579)
-5.0%
Power Play
59.5% (252)
59.3% (108)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (137)
25.0% (8)
+24.6%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Larkin is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (851).
Larkin shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Home / Away
Larkin
Duchene
Home
54.9% (721)
54.9% (375)
Away
49.6% (641)
57.5% (320)
By Period
Larkin
Duchene
P1
52.4%
58.3%
P2
50.8%
56.7%
P3
54.4%
53.1%
OT
43.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
57.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2019 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 3 | 12:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:14 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 04:09 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 5, 2019 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |