Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (74% H2H, 27 meetings). Duchene wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.1% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 41-35 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 63.9%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 52.6%
Neutral zone
Duchene 56.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Duchene
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
35
(76 meetings)
41
35
Duchene
Zibanejad
Last 10: Duchene 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
20
7
Duchene
Zibanejad
27 total
Defensive Zone
Even
9
9
Duchene
Zibanejad
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
12
19
Duchene
Zibanejad
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (10,396)
50.9% (11,719)
+3.0%
Power Play
56.9% (1,665)
52.2% (1,849)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (468)
41.5% (1,790)
+7.6%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Duchene shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zibanejad
Home
55.6% (6,411)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
52.7% (6,142)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Duchene
Zibanejad
P1
54.5%
50.4%
P2
54.5%
49.7%
P3
53.4%
49.8%
OT
56.3%
48.7%
Final 5 min
53.7%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 17:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2019 | OT | 03:21 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 5, 2019 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |