Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Zibanejad 49.3% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 55.0%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 60.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 56.4%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Duchene
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Duchene
Zibanejad
Last 8: Duchene 4-4 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Zibanejad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
2
Duchene
Zibanejad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Zibanejad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
50.9% (913)
+5.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.0% (39)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
37.5% (160)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Duchene shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zibanejad
Home
56.6% (318)
51.1% (536)
Away
56.4% (319)
47.6% (576)
By Period
Duchene
Zibanejad
P1
57.2%
50.1%
P2
55.1%
47.3%
P3
55.6%
50.7%
OT
81.3%
45.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:19 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |