Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.8% vs Zibanejad 52.2% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.4%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 80.4%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 58.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Duchene
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Duchene
Zibanejad
Last 7: Duchene 6-1 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
6
0
Duchene
Zibanejad
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
1
Duchene
Zibanejad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (162)
54.0% (955)
-7.1%
Power Play
73.2% (56)
55.6% (243)
+17.6%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (2)
35.0% (140)
+65.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +65.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Duchene is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Duchene shoots left. Zibanejad is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,033).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zibanejad
Home
58.4% (125)
55.2% (656)
Away
48.4% (95)
49.6% (682)
By Period
Duchene
Zibanejad
P1
56.9%
56.3%
P2
52.5%
50.0%
P3
51.9%
51.2%
OT
80.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
52.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:00 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 17:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |