Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Duchene wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.0% vs Zibanejad 48.9% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 51.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 82.3%
Neutral zone
Duchene 64.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.6%
66.6%
33.4%
Duchene
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Zibanejad
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Zibanejad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
2
Duchene
Zibanejad
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (1,081)
49.1% (1,031)
+3.5%
Power Play
49.6% (119)
47.5% (200)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
46.7% (30)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Zibanejad has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Duchene shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (834).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zibanejad
Home
54.9% (625)
52.0% (658)
Away
49.3% (592)
45.3% (603)
By Period
Duchene
Zibanejad
P1
52.7%
48.0%
P2
54.1%
53.2%
P3
49.5%
45.8%
OT
57.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
46.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2015 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 17:20 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 17:38 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |