Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Duchene wins 65.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 86.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 85.9%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 77.8%
77.8%
22.2%
Duchene
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Zibanejad
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
2
Duchene
Zibanejad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Zibanejad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
52.8% (767)
+9.4%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
62.6% (107)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
28.9% (76)
+30.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +30.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Duchene is 65.4% vs right-shot opponents (407).
Duchene shoots left. Zibanejad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (652).
Home / Away
Duchene
Zibanejad
Home
66.5% (555)
51.0% (500)
Away
58.6% (543)
53.1% (450)
By Period
Duchene
Zibanejad
P1
63.2%
54.2%
P2
59.6%
53.6%
P3
65.0%
49.0%
OT
71.4%
37.5%
Final 5 min
65.9%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 11:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 00:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 2 | 09:06 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 00:55 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 00:49 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |