Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.6% vs Backlund 49.7% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 82.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 57.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Duchene
Backlund
Last 7: Duchene 2-5 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (324)
50.1% (891)
+1.1%
Power Play
60.4% (53)
53.1% (64)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.8% (278)
-31.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
51.6% (182)
48.1% (580)
Away
52.2% (201)
51.1% (653)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
49.6%
45.1%
P2
56.2%
54.7%
P3
48.6%
49.0%
OT
60.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:32 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |