Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Backlund 50.8% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 83.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Duchene
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (193)
51.9% (1,083)
+2.0%
Power Play
49.2% (65)
51.7% (120)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
44.3% (183)
+55.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +55.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
54.9% (113)
51.9% (673)
Away
51.4% (146)
49.9% (713)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
54.9%
51.4%
P2
52.7%
50.5%
P3
51.9%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
35.0%
Final 5 min
60.6%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:34 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 11:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |