Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 52.1% vs Backlund 48.5% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 79.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Duchene
Backlund
Last 10: Duchene 3-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
3
Duchene
Backlund
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (723)
50.4% (1,032)
+2.6%
Power Play
49.5% (101)
52.3% (107)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (16)
40.6% (313)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
54.9% (408)
48.7% (749)
Away
50.0% (432)
48.1% (703)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
52.5%
50.4%
P2
51.7%
50.1%
P3
53.6%
45.8%
OT
33.3%
30.8%
Final 5 min
53.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:00 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 13:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |