Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 55.6% vs Backlund 50.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 68.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 74.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 53.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Duchene
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Duchene
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (566)
51.0% (1,205)
+5.5%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
59.3% (108)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
42.3% (234)
-20.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
56.6% (318)
51.2% (782)
Away
56.4% (319)
49.4% (765)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
55.1%
49.8%
P3
55.6%
49.9%
OT
81.3%
37.5%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 06:16 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |