Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Duchene wins 60.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 61.5% vs Backlund 48.2% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 91.0%
Defensive zone
Duchene 73.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 84.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 83.7%
83.7%
16.3%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Duchene
Backlund
Last 9: Duchene 7-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
0
Duchene
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
1
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
62.2% (802)
47.3% (1,070)
+14.9%
Power Play
67.3% (153)
62.1% (140)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
59.4% (143)
43.9% (269)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (910).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
66.5% (555)
49.1% (768)
Away
58.6% (543)
47.0% (711)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
63.2%
46.8%
P2
59.6%
47.5%
P3
65.0%
49.3%
OT
71.4%
59.3%
Final 5 min
65.9%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2017 | 3 | 03:56 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 3 | 01:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 17:31 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 09:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 4, 2017 | 2 | 00:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 17:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 2 | 12:06 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |