Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Duchene wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 54.9% vs Backlund 49.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 78.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 70.0%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Duchene
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Duchene
Backlund
Last 6: Duchene 4-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
3
0
Duchene
Backlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Duchene
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,013)
49.2% (884)
+6.2%
Power Play
56.3% (192)
44.3% (61)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (17)
57.0% (86)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Duchene is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (823).
Duchene shoots left. Backlund is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Duchene
Backlund
Home
56.2% (642)
49.3% (531)
Away
54.3% (580)
49.8% (500)
By Period
Duchene
Backlund
P1
56.2%
47.1%
P2
56.5%
53.7%
P3
52.9%
47.8%
OT
64.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
55.3%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 3 | 08:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 15:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 2 | 06:31 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 19, 2019 | 1 | 10:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |